Understanding Advanced Football Stats

Let’s be honest: football can be pretty complicated these days, especially when it comes to all these new statistics. You’ve probably heard commentators and pundits on TV talking about “xG,” “xA,” “PPDA,” or “carries” and wondered, “What on earth are they on about?” I’m 10, I love football, and I also really like maths (yes, I’m that kid). After seeing all these stats popping up during matches, I decided to do some digging to understan+d what they mean. I worked with my dad to read up on these advanced metrics, and now I want to share what I’ve learned with you.

This guide is for fans who love the beautiful game but don’t necessarily have a clue what “expected goals” means. It’s also for those who might be interested in how maths and football come together. Don’t worry if some of these terms sound complicated—I’ll try my best to explain them simply. By the end, you’ll hopefully have a good idea of what these stats mean, why they matter, and how they can help you better understand football.

Why Advanced Stats Matter

Before diving into each stat, let’s talk about why we even bother with them. Traditionally, we’ve looked at things like goals scored, shots taken, and possession percentages. Those are still important, but the modern game has pushed analysts to go deeper. Football is unpredictable, and there are times when a team dominates but still loses to a smaller side. We’ve all seen those giant-killing FA Cup matches where a Premier League team gets beaten by a lower-division club. On paper, the favourites “should” win easily, but the ball doesn’t always bounce that way.

This is where advanced stats come in. They don’t predict the future perfectly—anything can happen on the day—but they help us understand how well a team or player is actually performing, beyond just the scoreboard. If a team consistently creates high-quality chances, they’re probably playing well, even if they get unlucky and lose now and then. These stats add extra layers to our understanding of the game.

Expected Goals (xG)

What is xG?

“Expected goals,” or xG, is a metric that tells us how likely a particular shot is to result in a goal. It looks at lots of factors—like the angle of the shot, the distance from goal, the type of pass that set it up, and what part of the body is used to shoot. Each shot is given a value between 0 and 1. A value of 0 means it’s virtually impossible to score from that situation (like trying to score from your own half with the entire defence in front of you). A value of 1 means the chance is so good you’d expect any average player to score it almost every time, like a tap-in from a couple of yards out.

For example, imagine a shot from inside the box that’s assigned a value of 0.1 xG. That means an average player would score that chance about 10% of the time, or once every ten tries. Over many matches, xG helps us see if a team is creating good chances or just taking wild shots from far away. It’s super helpful because it moves beyond just counting shots and tells us about shot quality.

Expected Goals on Target (xGOT)

What does xGOT mean?

If xG looks at how good the chance was before the shot, xGOT (Expected Goals On Target) takes it one step further. Once the shot is actually hit on target, xGOT looks at where in the goal it ended up. Shots placed into the corners are harder for the keeper to save, so they’re given more credit. Shots blasted straight at the goalkeeper are less threatening.

In short, xGOT is a “post-shot” measure. It answers the question: given that this shot was on target, how likely was it to be a goal considering its exact placement in the goalmouth?

This helps us understand finishing quality. If a striker always shoots straight at the keeper, their xG might be high but their xGOT could show they aren’t placing their shots well. Similarly, if a keeper consistently saves shots that xGOT says are likely to go in, we can appreciate just how good that goalkeeper’s reflexes and positioning are.

Goals Prevented

Measuring Goalkeepers Fairly

Goals prevented is another stat that builds off xGOT. Since xGOT gives us the likelihood of a shot on target going in, we can figure out how many goals a goalkeeper should have conceded based on the quality of those shots. If a keeper faces shots worth a total of, say, 40 expected goals on target but only concedes 32 goals, that keeper has prevented about 8 goals more than expected.

This is a brilliant way of giving credit to goalkeepers who make difficult saves. It’s not enough to say they conceded X number of goals; we need to know what kind of shots they were facing. Some keepers might let in easy shots, while others make impossible saves look routine. Goals prevented helps separate the truly outstanding keepers from the merely average.

Expected Assists (xA)

Understanding the Creators

We all know about assists: the final pass or cross that sets up a goal. But not every great pass results in a goal. Expected assists (xA) measure how good a pass was in terms of its likelihood of becoming an assist. Factors like the length of the pass, the type of pass (through ball, cross, pull-back), and its location on the pitch are considered. By adding up a player’s xA, we see how many assists they “should” have had based on the quality of their passes.

This helps us appreciate players who set up great chances, even if their teammates fail to score them. So, a creative midfielder might have a high xA number, showing they’re doing their part in making opportunities, even if the actual assist count is low because their striker keeps missing sitters.

Expected Pass Completion (xP)

Predicting Whether a Pass Should Succeed

Expected pass completion (xP) is like a passing version of xG. Instead of predicting goals, it predicts whether a pass should be completed. It considers details like the distance of the pass, the angle, whether it was played on the ground or in the air, from open play or a set-piece, and even what part of the body was used. By knowing how hard certain passes are, we can rate how well a player is passing compared to what’s expected.

For example, a player constantly attempting tricky passes that only succeed 40% of the time might still be doing great if we know the passes are only expected to be completed 30% of the time. In other words, xP helps us understand who’s genuinely good at passing and who’s just playing it safe with easy balls.

Carries

Running With the Ball

“Carries” refer to the number of times a player moves with the ball under control for at least five metres. It’s not just about dribbling past defenders; it’s any forward movement with the ball at the feet. Within carries, we look at:

Carry distance: How far did the player move with the ball?
Carry progress distance: How far did the player move the ball up the pitch?

This stat helps us identify players who drive the team forward. Maybe it’s a winger who constantly runs down the flank or a midfielder who carries the ball through the centre of the park, pushing the team closer to the opponent’s goal.

Defenders Bypassed

Beating the Opposition’s Defensive Line

Defenders bypassed measures how many defenders a player “gets past” during their run with the ball. For example, if you start a run with three defenders between you and the goal, and by the end of your run only one defender is still in front of you, you’ve bypassed two defenders. This stat can be negative too if the defending team recovers and gets more players behind the ball by the end of the run.

This gives credit to players who break lines and create openings. It’s especially important for understanding how effective a player’s dribble or carry is, not just how far they run.

Off-the-Ball Runs

Impact Without Touching the Ball

Not everything in football happens with the ball at a player’s feet. Off-the-ball runs are instances where an attacking player makes a clever run to find space, drag defenders out of position, or make themselves available for a pass. The run must show some intensity and must influence the defence—like forcing a defender to track the run, opening space for a teammate, or making the defensive shape shift.

Off-the-ball runs help us understand which players are good at creating opportunities even if they don’t end up receiving the ball. Movement is key in football, and this stat captures that aspect.

High Turnovers

Regaining Possession Close to the Opponent’s Goal

A “high turnover” is when a team wins the ball back within 40 metres of the opponent’s goal. This often happens when a team is pressing high or the opponent makes a risky pass near their own penalty area. Teams that are good at forcing high turnovers can create quick scoring opportunities, as they’re already close to the target when they get possession.

Player Pressures

Getting in the Opponent’s Face

A pressure event is when a defender applies pressure to the opponent—either the one on the ball (direct pressure) or to a potential receiver (indirect pressure). This involves maintaining speed, moving towards the opponent, and staying close enough to force them to hurry.

Pressures help us understand defensive work beyond just tackles or interceptions. Some players might not always win the ball back themselves but cause opponents to make mistakes or take poor shots simply by hurrying them.

Team Presses

Working Together to Win the Ball Back

A team press occurs when two or more defenders apply pressure in a coordinated manner. Think of it like a trap: several players move to close down passing lanes and force the opponent to give up possession. This can only happen if the defending team is organised and not in a chaotic defensive transition.

Counter Press

Instant Pressure After Losing Possession

A counter press is when a team tries to win the ball back immediately after losing it, within about two seconds, and not following a restart like a throw-in. It’s what you see when a team loses the ball high up the pitch and instantly swarms the opponent to recover it before they can start a counter-attack of their own.

Pressed Sequences

Measuring Effective Pressing

A “pressed sequence” is when a team limits the opponent’s passing sequence to three passes or fewer and wins the ball back within 40 metres of the opponent’s goal. This shows how effective a press is in shutting down an opponent’s build-up play.

Opposition Passes Allowed per Defensive Action (PPDA)

How Much Time Does the Opponent Get on the Ball?

PPDA stands for “Passes Per Defensive Action” and is a way to measure how intense a team’s pressing is. It counts how many passes the opponent makes outside the pressing team’s defensive third, divided by how many defensive actions the pressing team makes in that area. A lower PPDA means the pressing team allows fewer passes before applying defensive actions, indicating a more aggressive press.

High Defensive Actions

Defending Further Up the Pitch

High defensive actions count the number of defensive actions a team makes in the opponent’s defensive and middle thirds. Teams with lots of high defensive actions are usually ones that defend on the front foot, trying to force errors near the opponent’s goal rather than sitting deep.

Sequences and Possessions

Breaking Down the Flow of the Game

A “sequence” starts when a player from one team performs a controlled action, like a pass, and continues until the ball is lost, play stops, or a shot is taken. Multiple sequences can form part of a single “possession.” A possession can consist of several sequences in a row as long as the same team keeps control.

Passes per sequence: On average, how many passes does a team make before the sequence ends?
Sequence time: How long, in seconds, does a sequence last?

These stats help us understand a team’s style. Are they patient, passing the ball around slowly? Or are they more direct, hitting just one or two passes before trying to score?

Open-Play 10+ Passing Sequences

Long Periods of Control

This metric counts how many sequences in open play have 10 or more passes. Teams that rack up lots of 10+ passing sequences tend to have a patient, possession-based style. Think of prime Barcelona passing the ball around and waiting for the perfect moment to break through the defence.

Absolute Width per Sequence

How Wide Do They Play?

Absolute width measures the maximum distance, in metres, that a team stretches itself from the centre of the pitch during a sequence. Teams that play with wingers hugging the touchline have greater width, potentially pulling the defence apart and opening spaces in the middle.

Directness

How Straight to Goal Are They?

Directness calculates what percentage of a team’s movement in a sequence is towards the opponent’s goal. A higher percentage means they’re moving forward more directly, not passing sideways as often. Some teams prefer a direct style, quickly getting the ball upfield, while others prefer a more patient build-up.

Direct Speed

How Fast Do They Move Upfield?

Direct speed measures how many metres per second a team moves the ball closer to the opponent’s goal during open-play sequences. Using the median (to avoid extremes) helps give a fair idea of how quickly a team progresses towards the opponent’s end. A high direct speed means they’re racing forward, while a low one suggests they move more slowly up the pitch.

Progress

Measuring Advancement up the Field

Progress tells us how far, in metres, a team moves the ball upfield in each sequence. It’s basically the starting position versus the ending position. If a team consistently gains lots of metres per sequence, they’re making meaningful progress toward the opponent’s goal.

Build-up Attacks

Patient, Constructive Play

A build-up attack is an open-play sequence with 10 or more passes that leads to a shot or at least one touch in the opponent’s box. It’s a sign of a team patiently constructing attacks rather than relying on quick, long balls. Teams known for keeping possession and patiently waiting for openings often have plenty of build-up attacks.

Direct Attacks

Making a Beeline for Goal

A direct attack is basically the opposite approach. It starts inside a team’s own half, involves at least 50% forward movement toward the opponent’s goal, and ends either with a shot or a touch inside the opponent’s box. This is the classic counter-attacking style—fast, purposeful, and vertical.

Transition Opportunities

Catching the Opponent Off-Guard

Transition opportunities count how many times a team has the chance to attack a disorganised defence right after winning the ball. In other words, when the opponent is not set and might be scrambling to get back into shape, can the attacking team exploit that?

Starting Distance

Where Do They Begin Their Moves?

Starting distance measures how far from their own goal a team starts their open-play sequences, on average. Teams starting sequences closer to the opponent’s half might press high and try to win possession further upfield. Teams starting deeper might prefer a more cautious approach, building from the back.

Field Tilt

Which Team Controls the Final Third?

Field tilt looks at the share of possession a team has in the attacking third. Instead of just measuring overall possession, it focuses on where that possession is happening. Are they spending more time in the opponent’s last third of the pitch than vice versa? Field tilt helps understand territorial dominance and who’s dictating play near the goal.

Why These Stats Help?

You might still feel that’s a lot to take in. It is! Advanced metrics are complicated, but they help tell a fuller story of what’s happening on the pitch. Instead of just saying, “Team A had 60% possession, but only won 1–0,” we can understand if they created high-quality chances (xG), if their passing was risky or safe (xP), if they pressed well (PPDA), and if their goalkeeper saved them from certain goals (goals prevented).

For coaches and players, these numbers can help identify areas to improve. Maybe a manager learns his team is creating loads of good chances (high xG) but not scoring. That might mean they need a better finisher or more training on finishing. Or maybe the team isn’t pressing well—PPDA might show they allow too many passes before applying pressure, indicating the need for a more aggressive approach.

For fans, understanding these stats adds depth to watching the game. You can appreciate more than just the final score. After all, football isn’t always fair—sometimes the best team loses. But xG and other stats can help explain why a result might have been unlucky or if a team’s good form can last.

Conclusion

Football is a sport of drama, emotion, and chaos, which is exactly why we love it. Statistics won’t ever perfectly predict what’s going to happen on the pitch, and that’s okay. What these advanced metrics do is give us another lens to view the game. By understanding xG, xA, PPDA, carries, and so on, we can see the match from a different angle.

I’m 10 and my dad is 50, and we think mixing maths with football is really cool. It shows that the sport isn’t just about who’s the fastest or strongest, but also about who makes the smartest decisions. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just someone interested in the numbers, I hope this guide helped make these stats more understandable. The next time someone on TV starts going on about “expected this” or “pressing that,” you’ll know exactly what they mean—and impress your mates with your knowledge!

So, after your team’s next match, look at the stats, and remember: the more you know, the better you can enjoy the beautiful game.